On March 8, 2024, sixteen states will hold their presidential Primaries. Of the 16, large states like California, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia, are set to vote. Super Tuesday, as it’s colloquially known, will place 1,215 Democratic and Republican delegates up for grabs. Within the Democratic Party, President Biden has faced obsolete competition, consistent with the flawless nomination track record of incumbents. In the GOP, standards are soon to be broken, as former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor and US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, face off in one of the fastest narrowing nomination competitions in recent history. Over the next few months, the candidates themselves are bent on upsetting norms.
Not your Standard Standoff
If elected, Donald Trump would be the first criminally indicted US President. Could this seriously harm Trump’s campaign? It’s complicated. Trump isn’t new to breaking records, as the only president in history to be impeached twice. Currently in hot water with the law, Trump has been balancing court hearings with town halls, attempting to defeat prosecutions while preparing for an instrumental Super Tuesday. Some of the former president’s current cases include incidents of keeping classified information at Mar-A-Lago (his golf resort), paying hush money to an adult film star, and obstructions of official hearings (in the the aftermath of January 6th). While analysts debate whether Trump could even run if convicted, his reelection campaign has continued to pick up steam, celebrating decisive victories in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
Nikki Haley, if awarded her party’s nomination, would be the second woman from a major party, and first Indian American presidential nominee. Despite recently losing New Hampshire and Iowa, Haley’s holding out hope for February 24th, when South Carolinians will vote. If unsuccessful in winning the majority of the 50 Republican delegates, Haley’s campaign is predicted to falter, or come to an end completely.
Pressing Platforms
Haley believes in human-caused climate change, but disagrees with Biden’s green energy subsidies. She’s pushed US energy independence to the forefront of her campaign, vowing to boost coal fossil fuel production and pipeline infrastructure. California, the state with the largest number of Republican delegates, has been plagued by recent droughts and wildfires, which have been exacerbated by changing climate patterns according to the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA). Meanwhile, Trump has argued that sea level rises may only be noticeable after 300 years, joking in 2022 about the potential issue of “more seafront property.” South of the seafronts, on the southern border, both candidates have shared similarly strict policies. Haley and Trump have made clear that they intend to target illegal immigration and border crossings. Yet, Haley promises to improve legal immigration paths, while Trump plans on bringing back his travel ban, which targeted primarily Muslim countries.
Undisputed Underdog
Members of the GOP have already started to count Haley out. Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News, “I’m looking at the map and the path going forward and I don’t see it for Nikki Haley.” The official crowning of a nominee takes place at the Republican National Committee in July, though rumors of the RNC naming a presumptive nominee have been circulating following Haley’s early primary losses. Simultaneously, former candidates like Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis have endorsed Trump upon ending their races. While statistics favor Donald Trump, the significance of Super Tuesday is mounting, as caucuses and primaries will direct 1,215 delegates, and the eventual Republican nomination.